Research tracker

AI Complex Signals

Lead indicators for the AI buildout (power equipment, memory, leasing, credit and demand), placed by roughly how many months each one moves before it shows up in NVIDIA's reported revenue.

Latest reading Oct 15, 2026 · synced from Notion

16 of 24 signals holding. The watch list sits in Credit, Model Calibration and Memory Supply.

Lead-time board

Earlier warning on the left, in reported revenue on the right

Long-Lead EquipmentPower / GridMemory SupplyPolicy / RegulationCompute PriceLeasing & VacancyRates / Discount RateCreditMonetizable DemandDemand & CapexModel CalibrationStructural Tripwire2418129630months ahead of NVDA revenue
Latest move: improvingimprovingLatest move: worth watchingworth watchingkey signal context

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A personal research tracker, updated by hand from public filings, earnings calls and industry data. Lead times are approximate. Not investment advice.