Present value estimate: $166.93 discounted EPS for years 1–10 + $438.09 discounted value beyond year 10, at 14.57%.
$605.02
Scenario presets — reconfigure the model
Quick-load predefined scenarios: growth rates, terminal assumptions, and P/E multiples. Each preset applies a complete configuration to the DCF and valuation models. Click to apply; sliders adjust independently afterward. Active: Base (modified)
Historical range: avg P/E plus or minus one sample standard deviation. Range derived from 8 quarters, Oct 2024 to Jul 2026. Descriptive context only — where the multiple has been, not where it belongs. The conviction banner grades against the active scenario's band; these stats drive the chart band and the trend estimate below.
Avg TTM P/E
47.4×
Typical spread
11.3
1 standard deviation
Low end of normal range
36.1×
current slider: 39.5×
High end of normal range
58.7×
current slider: 58.9×
P/E trend estimate, Qtr 12
least-squares, 4 quarters forward
Least-squares trend on the last 8 quarters, extrapolated four quarters forward. The multiple has compressed in each of the last three quarters.
TTM P/EAvg (47.4×)Historical range (descriptive)
Canonical completed-quarter series (8 quarters); the Current point is live price ÷ TTM normalized EPS. Never overwritten by API data.
Dotted lines extrapolate using projection growth g and the same P/E range — not a forecast.
Staged DCF — intrinsic floor
This is a present-value estimate, not a price target. It takes consensus EPS for 2 years, applies staged growth rates for 8 more, then values everything after year 10 as a 10-year fade at 15% (Rx formula) followed by growth of 3.5% a year in perpetuity — all discounted back at 14.57%.
Current breakdown: $166.93 from discounted year 1–10 EPS + $224.57 from the fade years + $213.52 from the perpetuity = $605.02.
The amber fill shows each year's EPS discounted to present value at rate d. The gap between the EPS line and the fill widens with higher d — that compression is what sets the intrinsic floor.
From FY2017 to present, EPS and stock price CAGR are near-identical (70% vs 72%). Every 1% EPS gain translates to ~0.42% price rise. The multiple is earned, not speculative.
EPS / Price correlation
71%
FY2017–present
Price beta to EPS
0.42×
per 1% EPS gain
EPS CAGR (11yr)
~70%
Price CAGR (11yr)
~72%
EPS gain %Capital gain %Projected EPS gain %Projected capital gain %
FY2019 shows the negative-correlation test: EPS fell −48%, stock fell −31%. Even in drawdowns, price tracks EPS direction.
FY2023 exception: GAAP EPS fell again (down-cycle continued), yet the stock surged +239% as the market priced the AI inflection ahead of earnings — price led EPS by ~12 months. FY2026 is a partial year (YTD through March 30).
Projected years use Yahoo normalized consensus EPS seeds as slider defaults, with capital gain based on midpoint target prices from the current P/E range.
EPSEarnings per share — the company's net profit divided by total shares.
Forward EPSAn analyst's estimate of EPS over the next 12 months — projected, not yet reported.
TTM P/EPrice divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS — the live multiple plotted as the “Current” point on the historical chart.
P/E multiplePrice-to-earnings — how much investors pay per $1 of earnings. The target sliders default to the active scenario's multiple band.
Staged DCFA discounted cash flow model that starts from consensus seed years, applies editable staged growth rates after them, discounts at the CAPM-derived rate, and adds an Rx-derived terminal value.
CAPMCapital Asset Pricing Model — sets the discount rate from market inputs: d = risk-free rate + beta × equity risk premium (currently 14.57%). Edit rf, erp, and beta in the model inputs.
Scenario presetA complete model configuration — seed years, growth stages, terminal assumptions, and multiple band. Bear, Base, and Bull; the conviction banner grades the live multiple against the active scenario's band.
Intrinsic floorThe minimum a stock should be worth based on DCF. A margin-of-safety check, not a price target.
Terminal valueThe business's value beyond the 10 projection years, in two parts. First a fade period from the Rx formula: Rx = (1 + terminal growth) ÷ (1 + d); multiple = Rx × (Rxyears − 1) ÷ (Rx − 1). Then a perpetuity: the last fade-year EPS × (1 + perpetual growth) ÷ (d − perpetual growth), discounted to today. Not a fixed exit multiple.
Discount rateCAPM: rf + beta × equity risk premium. Beta is Blume-adjusted (0.67 × raw 2.22 + 0.33 = 1.82), the standard correction for raw betas drifting toward 1.
Current price
fetching live price…
1yr target range
$132.44–$174.58
2yr target range
$164.56–$216.92
Staged DCF floor
$129.52
Historical Non-GAAP TTM P/DE — 47 quarters + live
Full BX P/DE history from Q4 2014, plus a live current point using Finnhub price / latest reported LTM Q2 2026 DE per share. Amber segments = below 20×. Blue band = 22–29× fair range.
All-time avg P/DE
20.5×
across 47 quarters
Live P/DE
LTM Q2 2026 DE/share $6.15
Fair range
22–29×
sourced from historical analysis
Buy-zone touches
25 / 47
historical quarters below 20×
P/DE has touched below 20× in 25 of 47 completed quarters — historically a strong re-entry signal. Live reading: pending….
Latest DE checked against Blackstone Q1 2026 earnings release: DE was $1.36/share in Q1 and $5.84/share over the LTM. Q4 2025 uses FY2025 DE/share of $5.57 and year-end price. 22×–29× range sourced from 10-year DE growth analysis.
P/DE works like P/E but uses Distributable Earnings (DE) — a truer measure of BX cash generation than GAAP earnings. Total return = price appreciation + yield from distributions.
Dotted lines extrapolate using growth rate g and the same P/DE range — not a forecast.
Staged DCF (DpS-based) — intrinsic floor
This uses Distributions per Share (not DE): consensus DpS for 2 years, 8 years at 10%, then a 20-year fade at 8% (Rx formula) followed by growth of 3.5% a year in perpetuity — all discounted back at 12.15%.
Current breakdown: $46.37 from discounted year 1–10 DpS + $59.03 from the fade years + $24.11 from the perpetuity = $129.52. Value beyond year 10 is 64% of the floor.
CAPM discount rate
%
%
d = rf + beta × erp = 12.15% — recomputes the floor live.
Intrinsic floor
$129.52
DpS discounted to today
Price vs floor
+13.9%
Appears undervalued vs floor
DE growth projection — 3-year outlook
Yr 3 DE/share
$8.01
+33.1% cumulative growth
Yr 3 distribution
$6.81
Yr 1 yield
$5.12/share
DCF intrinsic floor
$129.52
DE per shareDistribution per share (right axis)
DE drives price — historical evidence (2021–2025)
BX is better analyzed with non-GAAP Distributable Earnings than GAAP EPS. This chart mirrors the NVDA/GOOGL EPS chart, but swaps EPS for DE/share and keeps capital gain separate from distributions.
Latest LTM DE/share
$6.15
LTM Q2 2026
2026E DE/share
$6.02
-2.1% vs LTM
2027E DE/share
$7.48
+24.3% vs 2026E
Projected yield
based on payout slider
DE/share gain %Capital gain %Projected DE/share gain %Projected capital gain %
Historical DE/share uses Blackstone non-GAAP DE per common share. Capital gain excludes dividends, which are a major part of BX total return.
Projected years use explicit DE/share seeds in the sliders, not Yahoo normalized EPS. Tooltip shows DE/share, implied price, and distribution yield.
DE (distributable earnings)The cash BX actually generates and can pay out. All Wall Street analysts use DE when valuing Blackstone.
DpS (distributions per share)The cash Blackstone actually pays out to shareholders, per share. Equal to DE × payout ratio — DE is what it earns; DpS is what it pays. The staged DCF discounts DpS, not DE.
P/DE multiplePrice-to-distributable-earnings — BX's equivalent of a P/E ratio.
CAPMCapital Asset Pricing Model — sets the discount rate from market inputs: d = risk-free rate + beta × equity risk premium (currently 12.15%). Beta is Blume-adjusted (0.67 × raw 1.56 + 0.33 = 1.38). Edit rf, erp, and beta in the DCF card.
Payout ratioThe percentage of DE paid out to shareholders as cash distributions. BX historically pays ~85%.
DistributionCash paid regularly to shareholders. Equal to DE × payout ratio. The yield component of total return.
Total returnPrice appreciation plus yield (distributions received). For BX, yield is a meaningful part of the investment case.
Buy zone (<20×)Historically, P/DE below 20× has been a reliable re-entry signal. It has occurred in 25 of 47 completed quarters.
DCF intrinsic floorThe minimum BX should be worth based on future distributions per share (DpS) discounted to today's dollars: 10 projected years, a fade period, then a perpetuity.
Current price
fetching live price…
1yr target range
$216.54–$312.78
2yr target range
$268.92–$388.44
Staged DCF floor
Present value estimate: $151.62 discounted EPS for years 1–10 + $327.97 discounted value beyond year 10, at 10.88%.
$479.59
Historical TTM P/E — context for your multiples
Historical range: avg P/E plus or minus one sample standard deviation. Range derived from 12 quarters, Sep 2023 to Jun 2026. Descriptive context only — where the multiple has been, not where it belongs; GOOGL has no scenario bands yet, so conviction grades against this range. Canonical series — never overwritten by API data; the Current point is live price ÷ TTM EPS.
Avg TTM P/E
24.4×
Typical spread
3.9
1 standard deviation
Low end of normal range
20.5×
current slider: 18.0×
High end of normal range
28.3×
current slider: 26.0×
TTM P/EAvg (24.4×)Normal range
GOOGL fiscal year = calendar year. P/E has been more stable than NVDA — 20–35× for most of the post-2017 period, briefly dipping below 20× in 2022.
Dotted lines extrapolate using projection growth g and the same P/E range — not a forecast.
Staged DCF — intrinsic floor
This is a present-value estimate, not a price target. It grows EPS in two stages (20% for 5 years, then 12% for 5 years), then values everything after year 10 as a 10-year fade at 8% (Rx formula) followed by growth of 3.5% a year in perpetuity — all discounted back at 10.88%.
Discount rate: 10.88% from CAPM — 4.56% risk-free + beta 1.15 × 5.5% equity risk premium. Beta is Blume-adjusted from a raw 5-year beta of 1.23. Growth inputs are provisional estimates and have not yet been through a full analysis.
Current breakdown: $151.62 from discounted year 1–10 EPS + $146.34 from the fade years + $181.63 from the perpetuity = $479.59.
The amber fill shows each year's EPS discounted to present value at rate d. The gap between the EPS line and the fill widens with higher d — that compression is what sets the intrinsic floor.
GOOGL's EPS and stock price track each other more tightly than NVDA — higher correlation, beta closer to 1.0. Fiscal year = calendar year, so no lag between EPS reporting period and price return.
2022 test
−21% / −39%
EPS fell, stock overcorrected
2021 divergence
+91% / +65%
EPS led stock — mkt pre-priced
2025 re-rate
+65%
AI momentum + EPS +34%
Fiscal year end
December
calendar year — no offset
EPS gain %Capital gain %Projected EPS gain %Projected capital gain %
2022: EPS fell −21%, stock fell −39% — market overcorrected, setting up the +58% rebound in 2023 on +27% EPS growth.
2021: EPS surged +91% but stock gained only +65% — the market had already priced in growth ahead of earnings, mirror image of NVDA's 2023.
Yahoo consensus currently implies a near-flat 2027 EPS step: $14.24 in 2026 to $14.49 in 2027, or roughly +1.8% growth.
Projected years use Yahoo normalized consensus EPS seeds as slider defaults, with capital gain based on midpoint target prices from the current P/E range.
EPSEarnings per share — net profit divided by shares outstanding.
Forward EPSAnalyst consensus estimate of EPS over the next 12 months.
P/E multiplePrice-to-earnings — how much investors pay per $1 of earnings. GOOGL's range is more stable than NVDA's (20–35× for most of the post-2017 period).
Staged DCFA discounted cash flow model with two staged growth phases (20% for 5 years, then 12% for 5 years), discounted at rate d, with an Rx-derived terminal value rather than a fixed exit multiple.
Discount rate d10.88% from CAPM: rf + beta × equity risk premium. Beta is Blume-adjusted (0.67 × raw 1.23 + 0.33 = 1.15), the standard correction for raw betas drifting toward 1. Read-only here.
TTM P/EPrice divided by trailing-twelve-month EPS (excluding unrealized equity-stake gains) — the live “Current” point on the historical chart.
Fiscal year endDecember 31 — unlike NVDA (late January), GOOGL's fiscal year aligns with the calendar year. No offset needed between EPS period and stock return period.
Intrinsic floorThe minimum GOOGL should be worth based on future EPS discounted to today's dollars. A margin-of-safety check, not a price target.
Quotes from Finnhub, refreshed every minute on this tab. Market cap, average volume and the 52-week range update daily; a dash means Finnhub doesn't publish that figure (ETFs have no market cap) or doesn't report it in US dollars for that listing.